Liverpool Favourite To Win Premier League Again This Season

Liverpool's Premier League title chances in 2025

As the 2025 Premier League season unfolds, Liverpool stand out as the team most likely to lift the trophy once again. According to the latest data from the CIES Football Observatory, Liverpool have a 28.9% probability of winning the league, reflecting confidence in their squad and management under Arne Slot, who guided them to the 2024-25 title with four games to spare.

This prediction comes after Liverpool finished the previous campaign 10 points clear of second-placed Arsenal, marking a strong statement of intent for the season ahead. Liverpool’s blend of tactical discipline and attacking prowess makes them a formidable force in England’s top flight.

How the CIES model predicts Premier League winners

The CIES Football Observatory employs a sophisticated statistical model that combines sporting, economic, and demographic variables to forecast league outcomes. Key factors include the team’s ability to create chances, such as passes into the final third, transfer expenditures, and squad stability.

By analysing these metrics across 29 leagues worldwide, the model provides probabilities that reflect both current form and underlying strengths. For Liverpool, their high investment in quality players and consistent performances contribute heavily to their top spot in the Premier League title race.

Other Premier League contenders and their odds

Following Liverpool, Arsenal hold an 18.8% chance of winning the league, reflecting their strong squad depth and emerging young talent. Chelsea and Manchester City, despite their rich histories, are placed third and fourth with 16.2% and 14.4% chances respectively.

Manchester United, historically the most successful Premier League club, face a tougher challenge this season, with only a 2.6% chance of ending their title drought since 2013. These figures highlight the competitive nature of the league and the shifting power dynamics among England’s top clubs.

Comparing league favourites across Europe

While Liverpool lead in England, other European leagues have their own favourites. Real Madrid are tipped to reclaim La Liga with a 40.6% chance, while Barcelona trails closely behind at 29.6%. In Germany, Bayern Munich dominate the Bundesliga odds with a 61.4% probability of success.

Italy’s Serie A features a tight race among Inter Milan (25.6%), Juventus (18.2%), and Napoli (17.4%). Meanwhile, Paris St-Germain are strong favourites to secure their fifth consecutive Ligue 1 title with a 73.0% chance.

What makes Liverpool stand out this season?

Liverpool's key strengths lie in their attacking transitions, midfield control, and defensive organisation. Under Arne Slot’s leadership, the team has developed a fluid style that maximises possession and quick attacking movements. Their investment in young talent and experienced players alike has paid dividends on the pitch.

Moreover, Liverpool's recruitment strategy, focusing on players who excel in pressing and quick interplay, aligns perfectly with the demands of modern Premier League football. This balance of youth and experience is a critical factor in their 28.9% chance of retaining the title.

Insights from recent football trends and data

Recent statistics underline Liverpool’s dominance in key areas such as expected goals (xG), pass completion rates in the final third, and defensive solidity. These metrics often correlate strongly with title-winning teams. For example, Liverpool’s xG figures last season were among the highest in the league, indicating their attacking threat.

Furthermore, Liverpool’s ability to maintain fitness and minimise injuries has been crucial. This consistency allows for tactical continuity and stronger team cohesion over the long Premier League campaign.

Broader implications for English football fans

Liverpool’s predicted success adds excitement for supporters and analysts alike. With fierce competition from Arsenal and Chelsea, the Premier League promises another thrilling season. Fans can also stay updated on related developments, such as the England women's cricket team gearing up for World Cup challenge, showcasing the breadth of sport in the UK.

For fans eager to understand player safety off the pitch, recent insights into jockey safety at York Racecourse provide a reminder of sport’s wider responsibilities beyond football.

Conclusion: Liverpool's title defence outlook

With a 28.9% chance of winning the Premier League, Liverpool are favourites but face stiff competition. The blend of data-driven insights and real-world performances suggests that while Liverpool are well-positioned, the season will be hotly contested.

Fans and pundits should watch closely how Liverpool maintain their form against rivals. Their ability to adapt tactically and handle pressure will be decisive. Ultimately, the season promises compelling football drama, with Liverpool leading the charge to retain the crown.